Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of Common Motors, with President Trump at a Michigan event last month to discuss automaking and job creation.

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Complicating your train much more is the truth that individuals are likely to keep their vehicles longer these days than they used to. That is largely as a result of quality has gone up, decreasing the frequency needed to buy a new automobile. I suspect this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the opposite elements you talked about.